Guest Blogger #7: Forecasting the NYR Youth Movement

By John Ogando

Many of the Fire Sather crowd out there may take exception or disagree with this post’s title as not existent based on some of his previous actions but nevertheless some tangible and positive results are shaping up not just for 2010-11 but beyond.

If our beloved Blueshirts are to get younger and more importantly compete at the highest league levels and for Lord Stanley, some events must occur over the next 2-3 years to make this possible. Lets see if we can chart a high level blue print with the goal of establishing the kind of team we want to see on the ice by the 2012-13 season.

1. Leadership
This is perhaps the most important aspect to building our team. Many fans are currently dissatisfied from the owner, He-who-shall-remain-nameless to the GM F. Sather (F is for fire, but thanks anyway) until we get to (In) Gordie Clark (we trust).

Assuming the owner isn’t going anywhere, what is the succession plan?

We chased away our most promising executive who can dig a puck out of the left corner boards like nobody’s business to his own place in the sun (Donnie), we’ve brought back a messiah who is wet behind the ears (Mess), we’ve brought in a “Great” advisor (Dick) and have what many believe is a draft and talent guru (Gordie)……Where do we go from here??

I don’t think that this team should be in place for any more than one more year tops. Maybe this is what should happen after the 2010-11 season…….barring a Donnie prodigal son return to MSG or JD getting booted in St. Louie, OHHH BABY!!

Sather retires to chairman emetrius or some title like that, stays on as transition advisor. Mess continues his education under his mentor as Asst. GM. The GM position goes to the volatile Jim Schoenfeld who has made his bones as an executive / coach in the AHL and knows our prospects perhaps the best (along with Gordie, who should get whatever promotion to keep him on board).

What this does is that it gives Schoenfeld the mandate to implement a youth program on a somewhat short leash because he has Mess breathing down his neck so his results will determine if he stays past two years or not. Meanwhile (should he accept the mission as part of his tutorial) Mess heads to Hartford to work with our young guys in whatever role he wants. This keeps him in the loop but fairly out of Schoenfeld’s daily routine. If Schoenfeld succeeds, he stays past two years. If he doesn’t then another internal team is semi-in place.

2. Current Core
A lot has been written about our young “core” players moving forward. All I believe are 27 or younger, meaning that the prime years are in the near future. Disagreements, both sides with valid arguments, are bound to occur in deciding this core. But let me try to roughly define them and put them into two categories, Tradable and Keep at all costs:

Tradable: Cally, Dubie, Anisimov, Girardi, Gilroy, McDonagh (he should make this team in camp), maybe Christensen, maybe the Hobbit if he lights it up, maybe Prust and Boogaard.

Keep: Gabby, The King, MDZ, Staal (he isn’t going anywhere folks)

That’s about ½ a roster folks and no cap deadweight.

3. Prospects Arrive
So who can we add to this core in the next year or two to round out our roster and when can we realistically expect them to arrive? Again, since we are working on a 2 year horizon, we will split them into three categories; 2012, 2013, and Horizon. Remember, these may or may not become “core” players but should either contribute significantly that year or fight for ice time.

2012: Grachev, Stepan, Byers, Wiese, Valentenko

2013: Pashnin, Werek, Krieder, Chad Johnson

Horizon: McIl-Wrath, Niemi, Kundratek, Horak

There will always be a guy or two who pleasantly surprise us like maybe a Dupont or Soryal or Klassen or Bourque but numbers wise, lets assume that they will make up for a couple of disappointments bound to happen.

4. Outlook 2013
Add these highly regarded prospects to our “core” from 2010-11 and in two year’s time, the lineup could look something like the below. Again besides paying your best players market value (Henrik, Gabby, Staal, etc.) no huge cap busters appear because of Drury’s departure (or re-signing at 4th line center money) and the assumption that certainly by 2013 Redden, like an investment banking toxic asset, is moved onto someone else’s books (sorry Hartford) not on the Ranger’s books (prob happen this year). Remember, we haven’t even factored in very conservative free agency pick ups to fill out certain needs, i.e. big tough defenseman or penalty kill specialist.

Dubie (A)-Stepan-Gaborik
Grachev-Anisimov-Callahan (C)
Krieder-Christensen-Zuccarello
Byers-Drury-Prust
Boogaard-Werek-Wiese

Staal (A)-Girardi
Del Zotto-McDonagh
Pashnin-Gilroy
Valentenko

Lundqvist
Johnson

I’ve added a 5th line to show the competition for spots that make a healthy team. I’ve also assumed that Drury will get re-signed at $1 million (or less – you own us Dru!!) as a 4th line center / penalty kill specialist (which removes a need actually).

What does this lineup bring us?

Balanced scoring – check, speed – check, toughness – check (although you may have to mix up the lines a bit), well rounded and puck moving D – check, a solid (and upcoming) back up goalie option – check, leadership – check, a future - check

Now what might we need? Trying to be objective about the upward trend of some of these players’ careers, I still think that we might need a couple of things that could be solved through free agency or trades:

• A bonafide 2nd superstar forward (maybe a veteran play making center with some size), a downward trend Vinny, Joe T? Our only cap buster perhaps.

• A big bruising d-man – McIl-Wrath not ready yet so maybe a short timer veteran D to clear the net and form a good partnership with Pashnin (who will be the real deal) or Gilroy. I’m not yet convinced of either Gilroy or Valentenko. An older downward trend Chara as a rental, albeit a more expensive one?

Overall, even if you don’t add in the two components described above, this lineup (again the big assumption on the player development) can compete at the highest NHL levels and for the cup for many years to come. If you squeeze the two improvements mentioned above, then you have a powerhouse.

More importantly I feel that I could cheer for most of these guys on the roster and would be proud to have them wear the blue sweater and that says something as well.

5. Final Analysis
Perhaps the best part of this plan is that it doesn’t immediately or negatively punish the present and upcoming season much at all. The only thing that this youth plan prohibits is the signing of a superstar or trading for a Savard.

Again, assuming Redden gets waived to Hartford, it doesn’t prohibit the club to make a couple more short term improvements for another scoring forward or tough D even on a two year contract.

For D, we can still get a McKee (1 year) or Exelby (2 year) for a reasonable price. At forward, we could rent Gagne for a year at $5+, or cheaply kick the tires on Afinogenov (not another Sabre!!) or Conroy, or for mid-range dough look at Ponikarovsky or Stempniak for two years, or even sign Frolov for 4 years at $16 mil and make him part of the core squad for 2013. Or even just taking $3-5 mill cap space into the season and see what develops.

You can stop laughing (or crying) now, the point is that after dumping Redden we become flexible bargain “buyers” for the next two years while our young guns get schooled in Hartford by Messier (kinda like taking a Philosophy class from Aristotle or Socrates if you’re so inclined).

So what are you waiting for Slats?? Implement this plan and someday you’ll be proud you did and if that Schoenfeld guy isn’t available to be GM then maybe I’ll return your calls. Then again after JD had to buy his own MSG seats during one of the ceremonial pre-games, I’ll never work for this regime. Like a man named LeBron once told me, its all about loyalty brutha.